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ForecastBench
ForecastBench is identified by its primary project source as an evaluation family covering forecasting and probability calibration. This entry publishes independently authored task signatures only.
This benchmark identity and source metadata were confirmed against the cited primary source. Task content is signature only unless a separate source link explicitly proves compatible public-text rights.
forecasting probability calibration
Primary source: Forecasting Research Institute
Source evidence
Tasks
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Base-rate use
Evaluate whether an agent can combine a relevant base rate with case-specific evidence in a probabilistic reasoning task. Success is determined when the forecast satisfies the evaluation's calibration checks.
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Evidence update
Evaluate whether an agent can revise a forecast after receiving new dated evidence in a sequential forecasting environment. Success is determined when the updated probability follows the declared scoring rule.
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Probability forecast
Evaluate whether an agent can assign a calibrated probability to a time-bounded event in a forecasting evaluation with a resolution criterion. Success is determined when the forecast is scored against the resolved event.
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Resolution clarity
Evaluate whether an agent can identify ambiguity in an event's resolution conditions in a forecasting question with explicit criteria. Success is determined when the response correctly applies or flags the resolution rule.
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